Symptoms of a liquidity trap for Chinese households are appearing. Our proprietary indicators for the marginal propensity to spend among households and enterprises continue falling. There has been a paradigm shift in Beijing’s approach to policy stimulus. Authorities will be slow to introduce large ...
The CCP is poised to roll out a re-boot of China’s economy that will focus on its comparative advantage in the processing of base metals – particularly copper – and the export of metals-intensive products like EVs. The re-boot will emphasize deeper policy coordination to revive construction, manufac...
Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive....
The semiconductor industry is at the epicenter of the AI frenzy, which even with all the hallmarks of a bubble, may last for months. There are also early signs of a turnaround in demand for more conventional chips. As such, it no longer pays to be underweight in the sector. But the sector is too exp...
Expectations for oil demand growth through 2023-24 are way too optimistic. Until these expectations fall to -0.5-1 percent, the oil price has further downside. Plus: collapsed complexity confirms that AI is in a mania, while basic materials stocks and ZAR/EUR are rebound candidates....
The aerospace and defense industry faces several short-term headwinds such as the defense budget standoff, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages. But most of these will clear in the near term, and a relief rally is likely. Ensuing global geopolitical risks and rivalry will remain a long-term...
Now that the French pension reforms have been passed, President Macron’s focus will be on the international stage. Where are the risks and opportunities for French assets created by this pivot?...
President Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party emerged as the winner of the Turkish general election which was concluded yesterday. This victory means that their expansive policies of the past decade will continue, and Turkish assets will suffer. Across the Aegean, the Greeks voted to reele...
In this Month-In-Review report, we go over the latest G10 data releases and rank currencies’ fundamental standing based on our updated macroeconomic model....
The latest selloff in US Treasuries has left yields at attractive levels from a risk/reward perspective. We are therefore raising our recommended duration stance in the US from neutral to overweight....
