The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates this week to 5.5%. There are many reasons to expect that to be the last rate hike for this cycle – a development that is positive for New Zealand bonds but bearish for the New Zealand dollar....
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates this week to 5.5%. There are many reasons to expect that to be the last rate hike for this cycle – a development that is positive for New Zealand bonds but bearish for the New Zealand dollar....
US bond investors should increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a cyclical (6-12 month) investment horizon. We also recommend exiting Treasury curve flatteners and closing short positions in the February 2024 fed funds futures contract....
Once the debt ceiling soap opera ends, investors will likely turn their attention to some of the tailwinds supporting stocks. These include stronger earnings growth, diminished bank stresses, better housing data, early signs of an upleg in the manufacturing cycle, the prospects of an AI-driven produ...
We expect the CCP to pivot toward more fiscal stimulus – and less credit stimulus – this year, which will put a bid under energy and metals prices. On the back of this view, at tonight’s close we are getting long 4Q23 Brent futures vs short 4Q24 futures, and re-establishing our XME and PICK ETF posi...
In Section I, we review the three possible economic scenarios over the coming year, and underscore that the “soft landing” scenario remains improbable. A “no landing” scenario could occur, but it would ultimately lead back to the recessionary path and thus is not a basis for investors to maintain pr...
The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to tank. Plus: there are signs that the mania in ‘AI’ stocks has gone too...
China’s recovery is losing steam. Its industrial segments will disappoint, while the pace of consumer spending will be moderate. Overall, the Chinese economic recovery will underwhelm in the months ahead. Odds are that interest rate expectations in China will drop even lower, which will weigh on the...
Investors should expect high volatility and a selloff in US stocks over the short run due to the higher-than-usual risk of technical default. Investors should seek shelter in defensive sectors and large cap stocks. Long-dated Treasuries will see yields fall due to the overall macro and geopolitical ...
