The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets....
Time is running out on the Bank of England’s tightening cycle. UK economic growth is flirting with recession, unemployment is rising, house prices are contracting and inflation is decelerating. Markets are overestimating the eventual bottom in UK inflation, and thus are also underestimating how much...
The S&P 500 rally broadened in July, lifting this year’s laggards. Surging long yields are altering the macroeconomic backdrop, as the market absorbs that monetary policy will stay restrictive for a long time. Yet, a move down in yields is more likely than a move up over a tactical horizon. Q2 earni...
August offers an opportunity to review our key views. European growth is turning the corner and inflation is improving, but does it guarantee an imminent breakout in European stocks?...
Value, Size, and Quality all outperformed in July. Both the USHQ Large Cap and Small-to-Mid cap portfolios performed broadly inline with their benchmarks. We also break down the Q2 2023 earnings releases so far, where banks and Financials surprised to the upside....
China’s extremely high savings rate is the real culprit behind its current economic woes. The authorities have been slow to stimulate the economy, and the risks of “Japanification” have increased. For now, the fact that China is exporting deflation is not such a bad thing. However, if global recessi...
The odds of Russia cutting oil output will rise going into 4Q23, as Ukraine’s endgame increases pressure on it, and it actively seeks to undermine President Biden’s re-election. We reckon a 2mm b/d cut would push Brent above $140/bbl by December 2024. This would push inflation and inflation expectat...
