Latest from BCA Research

Bank Credit Analyst

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, we discuss the implications and potential risks of the Fed’s recent pivot. The near-term implications of the Fed's dovish pivot are likely to continue to be bullish for risky asset prices, and a new high in global stock prices cannot be ruled out. The Fed has not effectively countered market expectations that monetary policy will cease to be tight in a year’s time, which has eased financial conditions and will work counter to the Fed’s economic forecasts. However, we would expect this, at most, to delay rather than to prevent a recession. Developed economies remain on a recessionary path so long as monetary policy in the US and euro area remains actually tight. As such, we do not see the December meeting as a truly bullish catalyst for risky assets on a 12-month time horizon. In Section II, my colleague Ryan Swift of BCA’s US Bond Strategy service reviews the outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies for next year.

The statement from last week’s Central Economic Work Conference indicates that Chinese authorities are still not considering large-scale stimulus in 2024. Odds are that a full-fledged business cycle recovery in 2024 is unlikely. Chinese share prices remain vulnerable, and strengthening in the RMB will be short-lived.

Special Report

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.

The Republican Party’s odds of winning the 2024 election will benefit, if anything, from state courts’ attempts to exclude President Trump from primary or general election ballots. Higher odds of a change of ruling party will increase stock and bond market volatility.

Vietnamese stocks may not see an immediate rally as global manufacturing and exports remain weak. But investors with longer-term horizons should stay overweight this market.

In this insight we review the Key Views for 2024 from our strategists and give recommendations for implementing them in Equity Analyzer.

Oil prices will rise tactically due to supply risks. Recent developments indicate escalation of the conflict with Iran in the Middle East and confirm our expectation of energy supply disruptions and oil price spikes in the short run.

Special Report

Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays.

Special Report

Explore the eight main themes that will drive the returns of European assets in 2024.