In Section I, we note that the recent surge in long-maturity government bond yields is symptomatic of a sharp reduction in market expectations for a soft-landing economic outcome. This underscores that the US and other developed market economies are on an ultimately recessionary path. We also discus...
The bear market in US bonds will likely end with a bang rather than a whimper. Even during the secular US bond bull market of 1982-2021, cyclical bond bear markets ended only after an eruption of financial turmoil. It would be strange if this current ascent in bond yields ended without significant c...
The global energy transition will become more disorderly, if oil-and-gas capex growth continues to outpace that of critical minerals. We remain long exposure to the equities of oil and gas producers via the XOP ETF; the COMT ETF to retain direct commodity exposure, and $100/bbl December 2024 Brent c...
Despite higher oil prices, Colombian risk assets will underperform their EM peers in the months ahead. The domestic economy is evolving from stagflation into recession, and fiscal and political risks will raise the risk premium of Colombian assets. Take profits on the yield curve inversion trade and...
Magnificent Seven have outperformed the market by 42.3% YTD, but over the past few weeks, their rally has stalled. This short insight explores the reasons why and ultimately concludes that the pull back is justified and likely has more to go....
China’s oil demand growth will moderate to a still robust 4%-6% in the next six-to-nine months. We recommend that investors in China’s onshore and offshore stock indexes overweight energy producers....
Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance of the Magnificent Seven faces multiple hurdles. Meanwhile, fiscal spendi...
European stocks and the euro continue to weaken; soon, they will test the bottom of their recent trading range. Which sectors can protect investors against this downdraft?...
