The Israeli-Arab crisis is more likely to expand and cause oil disruptions than market consensus holds. Close long dollar trades and go long energy and defense stocks relative to cyclicals....
US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy succumbs to recession. Investors should increasingly favor bonds ove...
As global financial institutions like the IMF draw attention to the real-estate crisis in China, the CCP will be forced to step up regulatory and restructuring efforts to contain its spread and limit further contagion domestically and globally. The Party also will be forced to deliver stronger fisca...
Domestic auto sales in China will likely have anemic growth over the next three years. Yet, Chinese automakers are set to gain a larger share of the global market. Go long Chinese automakers / short global ones....
The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation...
Investors should book profits on our long Egyptian Treasury bill trade as the outlook for the Egyptian pound has worsened. The position has generated an 11.4% return in US dollar terms since its initiation eight months back....
Hamas’s attack on Israel raises the odds of a wider conflict in the Gulf, which would lead to higher oil prices. Given the response of oil prices Monday, markets appear to be relatively restrained in their assessment of a sharp escalation in prices. However, this is early days in a strategy that is ...
Volatility will remain the key dynamic in oil markets in the aftermath of the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. The risk of a major oil supply shock has gone up, but meanwhile supply constraints will remain at variance with global growth problems stemming from restrictive monetary ...
