Disinflation coupled with sticky wage growth is likely to result in either a second wave of inflation or layoffs and a recession. In the meantime, market expectations for sales, growth, and margins are overly optimistic and are inconsistent with macroeconomic headwinds. We recommend gradually realig...
Investors have taken comfort in the fact that unemployment has remained low in the major economies. But underneath the surface, there are clear signs that labor demand is weakening. The clock keeps ticking towards our H2 2024 recession call. After being bullish on risk assets last year, we are slowl...
The Brazilian government and the central bank will be prioritizing growth over curbing the fiscal deficit and inflation. The outcome of an easy policy mix is that growth and inflation will be higher relative to market expectations, and real interest rates will drop considerably. We recommend that in...
Decelerating nominal sales, a peaking credit cycle, and very high valuations - Indian stocks will not escape the carnage when risk assets globally begin to sell off....
The risk markets will be surprised by another 1mm b/d increase in crude oil supplies this year or next from the US is low, given the depletion of the unfinished-well inventory that drove shale output higher. Demand remains strong, although growth will slow. Higher non-OPEC 2.0 production, slowing de...
The SEC has just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, but does bitcoin have any ‘intrinsic’ value? In this Special Report we explain why the answer is yes, how bitcoin compares with gold, and why the bitcoin price could ultimately head well north of $100,000....
The market will eventually be forced to react to rising odds of a sharp US national policy reversal. Investors should overweight government bonds and defensive equity sectors....
