The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability. The US is hobbled by its election. Conflicts with Russia, China, and ...
Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is expected to broaden into yearend. Companies are optimistic about the ec...
ASEAN stocks and currencies will weaken further as these economies face multiple headwinds. Raising policy rates did not stop a sliding currency in the past, it is unlikely to do so now....
Varying degrees of exposure to certain economic sectors and regions can help explain differences in performance across commodities. This report uncovers some of these differences. In doing so, it presents our framework for analyzing commodities from a business cycle perspective....
The US stock market’s record 50 percent valuation premium versus the non-US stock market is pricing generative AI to do through the next decade what the Web 2.0 network effect did through the last decade. But this is a huge ask, as it will be very difficult for the Web 2.0 superstar companies to bec...
A reality check on credit data and announced property sector support measures indicates that the recent surge in Chinese share prices is unjustified based on the country's economic fundamentals....
